This is the most frequently asked question and it is always nice to have some ideas as to what the price trajectory for BTCUSD will be going down towards this halving event, and thereafter for the remainder of 2020.
Bitcoin had a pretty intriguing 2019. Last year’s price moves can best be explained as a roller coaster since the present price levels that have been accomplished by the BTCUSD pair (i.e. from $9500 to $10,500) were resistance areas that were tested a minimum of four times in 2019, but all tests, unfortunately, failed to break this price range to the upside. This lead to price dropping as low as $6,800, where BTCUSD finally found support.
Bitcoin Price In 2020
After reading all the above-mentioned statistics, one might wonder – what do the charts say?
Forget any of the rallies in price which have just occurred. The long-term chart quite visibly demonstrates that Bitcoin remains in a downtrend. All that has been happening is rallies within a downtrend, and that describes as to why sellers re-enter after the deceived traders who don’t know anything about the Dow theory of price action rush in with their buy orders.
What happens? Bitcoin price rallies to some extent, and then a fierce selloff kicks-off as the knowledgeable traders who were waiting throughout for the perfect moment, go in and start a huge selloff that burns fingers all the way down. According to a popular website, Bitcoin Predictions, this downtrend of Bitcoin should further deepen in 2020 and the bitcoin price should on average stay around the 8000 dollars mark.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
So, what are the possible Bitcoin price predictions for this year?
Recently, when BTCUSD tested the 10,500 level and was unsuccessful to break it to the upside, all of us observed a disastrous drop that took it to 6,500. That took place around Nov or Dec of 2019. If I base my Bitcoin price predictions for the remainder of the second quarter of 2020, it might be appropriate to mention that history might just repeat itself. It is extremely difficult to see Bitcoin trading above 9,500, but again, it is also difficult to see BTCUSD fall all the way to 6500.
A careful look at the daily chart for BTCUSD will show that the asset is trading within the corrective phase of the Elliot wave pattern.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
Here lies the main question, is the enormous c-wave correction over, particularly with price now lurking a 50% retracement from the swing low that marks the start of impulse wave 1, to the swing high marked by the peak of wave 5/start of corrective wave a?
It is highly likely that BTCUSD might make another push to the upside, but it is difficult to predict it trading above 9,900 or below 8000. Therefore, the “#1 2020” target should be around 8,000 and 9,900.
#2 2020 carries along with the Bitcoin halving event. Even now, there’s a gargantuan of division between experts as to how this halving event will go on to affect the price of Bitcoin. 85% of minable Bitcoin is mined already, and a massive part of this is either in wallets with missing private keys, in those stolen caches which are become seriously complicated to get rid of or in the hands of law enforcement agencies.
#3 and #4 2020
The crucial election season in the US possesses the ability to prompt a few changes in the cryptocurrency markets concerning policy. This could prove to be the time when institutional trading in BTC starts securing massive attention. Institutional involvement could see a bull run on BTCUSD that might allow it to begin approaching its 2017 highs.
And only in that case can we begin to think of BTC turning a corner. But, institutional involvement will collect less volatility on BTC, and therefore any price boost in BTC will be extremely slower than we are observing as of right now.
I expect to see BTCUSD trading approximately from 10,000 to 13,000 at this time, but only if the institutional players get involved. If this is not the case, then we may have to deal with range-bound prices that spill on from #3 to #4. $8,800 to $11,000 might be a good price range, but a shock drops to $7000 and back up again is not off the cards. Expect anything to happen on the fundamental front and if this is the case, any price predictions can be entirely upset by such events, rendering these null and void.
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